From Asian Wall Street Journal
1st December 2000

Mahathir Is Dealt Election Setback, As Support Wanes Among Malays

By LESLIE LOPEZ
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia -- Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has been dealt a sharp setback as his National Front coalition government suffered an unexpected loss to an opposition candidate backed by jailed politician Anwar Ibrahim.

The government's defeat in Wednesday's by-election for a seat in the Kedah state assembly was particularly bruising for Dr. Mahathir because it appears to signal waning support among ethnic Malays and younger voters, as well, according to Malaysian political analysts.

The opposition victory underscores the continued support Dr. Mahathir's chief political rival, Datuk Seri Anwar, commands in many parts of Malaysia. The Lunas assembly seat -- vacant since the incumbent was murdered by an unidentified gunman last month -- was won by Saifuddin Nasution Ismail of Parti Keadilan, or the Justice Party. Datuk Seri Anwar's supporters formed the party after Dr. Mahathir dismissed his one-time heir apparent from his government in September 1998. It is headed by the former deputy premier's wife, Wan Azizah Ismail.

Mr. Saifuddin garnered 10,511 votes, edging out S. Anthonysamy of the National Front by 530 votes. A National Front candidate won the same seat in last November's general election by a comfortable 4,700 vote margin.

The National Front's setback carries a personal sting for the 74-year-old Dr. Mahathir, whose support among Malaysia's ethnic Malay population has faded in the wake of Datuk Seri Anwar's sacking and subsequent conviction on sodomy and corruption charges. Kedah is the prime minister's home state, and loss of the Lunas seat stripped the Kedah state government -- headed by Dr. Mahathir's United Malays National Organization -- of its two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

Political analysts estimate about two-thirds of ethnic Malay voters, who account for 40% of the voting population in Lunas, supported the opposition candidate. The opposition also appeared to win the backing of a strong majority of young, newly registered voters who weren't eligible to cast ballots in last November's general election.

To be sure, the Lunas election result has no immediate bearing on Dr. Mahathir's national government. The National Front commands a strong majority in Malaysia's parliament. Dr. Mahathir, too, remains unchallenged in his control of UMNO, where he has served as party president for 19 years.

But Dr. Mahathir has seen the widespread popularity he enjoyed before Asia's 1997 financial crisis diminish in recent years. His sacking of Datuk Seri Anwar -- who is now serving a total of 15 years in prison sentences -- has deeply split the Malay community, turning many Malay voters against UMNO in last year's general election. Some senior UMNO officials contend that the Lunas defeat reflects how little the party has done to protect its political turf, despite repeated declarations from UMNO leaders exhorting the party to rebuild its appeal at the grassroots level.

"If last year's general election was supposed to be a wake up call for UMNO, the Lunas loss shows that the top UMNO leaders in government are still sleeping," said Shahrir Abdul Samad, a member of the party's policy-making Supreme Council. Datuk Shahrir said that one of the main reasons for UMNO's troubles is because "Dr. Mahathir is in a permanent state of denial" over the deteriorating perception of the public toward the government and UMNO.

Some political analysts and economists fret that the Lunas loss will intensify politicking within UMNO and the National Front and distract the government from the business of managing the economy. Some private sector economists predict growth will slow to about 5% next year, compared with the government-forecast expansion of 7.5% this year.

More immediately, the government's election loss shows the resiliency of the Anwar affair in shaping Malaysian politics, despite Dr. Mahathir's efforts to play down the issue. Indeed, the by-election in Lunas, a poor rural constituency with about 27,000 voters, was essentially a proxy battle between Dr. Mahathir and Datuk Seri Anwar. UMNO and its National Front allies campaigned on the theme that only the ruling coalition could bring economic development. The government spent heavily in Lunas over the past two weeks to pave roads, repair clogged drains and carry out other public works projects.

Dr. Mahathir didn't visit Lunas to campaign but deployed senior ministers from his cabinet, including deputy premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, to do so. Nevertheless, the National Front used Dr. Mahathir as its main selling point. Posters of a youthful looking Dr. Mahathir were plastered all over the constituency as part of the government's publicity blitz.

The opposition countered by putting up color posters of Datuk Seri Anwar dressed in prison garb and sporting the now-infamous black eye he received in a beating by Malaysia's then-national police chief on the night of his arrest in 1998. The opposition campaigned on the themes of government corruption, concerns over the independence of the judiciary and Dr. Mahathir's treatment of Datuk Seri Anwar, who maintains that he's the victim of a political conspiracy because he posed a threat to the prime minister's leadership.

Malaysian political analysts have argued that unless UMNO regains its appeal, the split among ethnic Malays could grow more acute as more Malaysians reach the voting age. By Malaysia's next parliamentary election -- which must be held by the end of 2004 -- at least 1.5 million new voters will be eligible to cast ballots. Of that number, about 60% will be young Malay voters who have little or no built-in loyalty to UMNO.