Five months after an electoral scare, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad – head of the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO) – reestablished his control over the party during its convention May 11. But Mahathir’s refusal to reform the party leadership bodes ill for party’s future.

The UMNO has held power for more than 40 years, the last 19 of them under Mahathir. However, last November the Parti Islam Se Malaysia (PAS) – a fundamentalist Muslim opposition party – made major gains, winning 27 seats compared to the eight seats it held previously. PAS’ fundamentalist message struck a chord with the populace, but many voted against the perceived corruption and cronyism of the UMNO, which lost 22 seats.

Mahathir, alarmed by this wake-up call, still had to deal with lingering dissent within UMNO after he ousted former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and had him tried on charges of sodomy. Mahathir’s solution was to batten the hatches and bring in the party loyalists. He induced party elders to appoint him to another term as party president without facing an internal election – where he certainly would have been challenged.

The party also elected three vice presidents – all political insiders. Najib Tun Razak already held the post, and Mahathir promoted him to defense minister last fall. Muhammad Taib was also an incumbent. Muhyiddin Mohamad Yassin held the position from 1993 to 1996 and currently acts as the minister of domestic trade and consumer affairs. All three winners formed a “Vision Team” loyal to Mahathir in 1993 that campaigned and won the vice presidency.

Mahathir cemented his grip on the UMNO, but it will hurt the party in the long run. The assembly was full of speeches urging party members to reach out to the forgotten common man. But, Mahathir was concerned about his own power base and chose loyalists over reformers. UMNO was shaken by the voters’ rejection of the ossified, outdated party, yet Mahathir’s response was to push out the young reformers and retrench the party in the same patterns that drove the voters away.

Not only will Mahathir alienate the electorate, he is alienating his own party members. He used some rather heavy-handed methods of ensuring his power base, such as suppressing debate on party reform and engineering his reappointment as party head. Some delegates told The Associated Press that they risked losing their jobs and party positions if they opposed Mahathir. Not only is Mahathir crippling the internal debate needed to reshape the UMNO, he is driving youth and reformers out of the party – sowing the seeds for a party split.

The 74-year-old Mahathir has promised that this term will be his last, and he is preparing Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as his successor. But as Mahathir forges the party discipline necessary to keep himself and Badawi in power, he undercuts the future of the UMNO.

Dari Laman web stratfor.com