Oleh : Yap Yok Foo

Hallo, Chinese, Hallo, Indians

HE IS firmly in command, but Mahathir Mohamad is still being snapped at from all sides. A good indicator of his troubles was his speech on June 17th to the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), one of the biggest parties in his ruling coalition. Although all of Malaysia's prime ministers, including Dr Mahathir himself, have been members of the Muslim-Malay majority, he told the MCA's annual assembly that the country's next leader might well come from the Chinese, Indian or other ethnic minorities. That would be an excellent notion for the prime minister to champion, if anyone thought he really meant it. But given the divisions within his own party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), Dr Mahathir's panderings amount to a rare admission of his vulnerability.

In the general election last November, UMNO suffered heavy losses among the Muslim-Malay majority. Dr Mahathir's coalition still won a thumping victory, but only with the help of the ethnic-Chinese and indigenous voters from the two big states in Borneo. UMNO's Muslim-Malays were outraged, and blame the 74-year-old prime minister for driving many of their supporters into the hands of PAS, the Islamic opposition party. Dr Mahathir's authoritarian ways and the treatment of his former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, who has been in prison since 1998, helped to trigger the exodus. The prime minister is now under pressure to win the deserters back and to bolster support for his new deputy, Abdullah Badawi, supposedly his anointed successor. So, why did the speech Dr Mahathir made to the MCA seem to undercut both objectives?

Mainly, it seems, because non-Malays have been emboldened by UMNO's internal problems. Until now they had faced a simple choice: by backing UMNO's partners, such as the MCA, they could at least win a stake for their ethnic group in the ruling coalition, or they could back a losing party. UMNO has led every government since independence in 1957. When voters cut into its majority in 1969, widespread race riots ensued. Nobody wants a repeat of that. So, for the most part, the ethnic minorities have gone for the status quo. Now, though, the election performance of PAS and its behaviour in regional government is changing a few minds.

Although PAS has laced its message with tolerance, it clearly hopes to integrate Islamic values firmly into Malaysian politics. That has long prevented any workable alliance with the other main opposition group, the Chinese-led Democratic Action Party. Nor did the entrance last year of a moderate, middle-class party, Justice, make any difference. This was led by Mr Anwar's popular wife, Wan Azizah Ismail, but it managed to capture only a few seats.

PAS now controls two north-eastern states: Kelantan, which it has ruled since 1990, and Terengganu, which it took in the election. In both states it has been applying different rules for Muslims and non-Muslims. Whereas Muslims, for example, face strict prohibitions on alcohol, pork and gambling, the ethnic Chinese do not.

Although such a system would be much harder to sell to moderate Muslims elsewhere in the country, most of whom prefer the less formal arrangements that apply in their own states, it might appeal to many non-Muslims. With UMNO's aura of invincibility suddenly gone, some of its small non-Muslim coalition partners might be tempted to defect to the opposition.

That is still unlikely, yet the very threat of it has been enough to prompt fresh demands from some of UMNO's coalition partners. Ling Liong Sik, the leader of the MCA, has been criticised by some of his own colleagues for not winning more representation in the cabinet, which is dominated by UMNO. His unhappiness about the MCA's allocation recently prompted him to threaten to resign. By entertaining the idea of a non-Malay prime minister, Dr Mahathir has tossed him a bone. Others may follow.